Measuring and stress-testing market-implied bank capital

February 1, 2022
Issue 2022-02

Download file now

The file can be downloaded with the button below.

Abstract

We propose a methodology for measuring the market-implied capital of banks by subtracting from the market value of equity (market capitalization) a credit spread-based correction for the value of shareholders' default option. We show that without such a correction, the estimated impact of a severe market downturn is systematically distorted, underestimating the risk of banks with low market capitalization. We argue that this adjusted measure of capital is the relevant market-implied capital measure for policymakers. We propose an econometric model for the combined simulation of equity prices and CDS spreads, which allows us to introduce this correction in the SRISK framework for measuring systemic risk.

Issue:
02
Pages:
53
JEL classification:
C32, G01, G21, G28, G32
Keywords:
Banking, capital, stress test, systemic risk, multifactor model
Year:
2022

Additional files

Related content

Author(s)

  • Dr. Martin Indergand

  • Eric Jondeau

  • Dr. Andreas Fuster

Your settings

Required: These cookies (e.g. for storing your IP address) cannot be rejected as they are necessary to ensure the operation of the website. These data are not evaluated further.
Analytics: If you consent to this category, data such as IP address, location, device information, browser version and site visitor behaviour will be collected. These data are evaluated for the SNB's internal purposes and are kept for two years.
Third-party: If you consent to this category, third-party services (used, for example, to add social multimedia content to the SNB's website) will be activated which collect personal data, process these data, disclose them abroad - worldwide - and place cookies. The relevant data protection regulations are linked in the 'Privacy statement for the website of the Swiss National Bank'.

Choose your preferred settings:

This website uses cookies, analytics tools and other technologies to provide requested features, content and services, to personalise the content shown, to provide links to social media, and to analyse the use of the website in anonymised form for the purposes of improving usability. Personal data are also disclosed abroad - worldwide - to video service providers and the analytics tools of these providers are used. More information is available under 'Manage settings'.